pharmaceutical manufacturing industry "wins", supply chain security into a "clear" worry
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According to the latest release by the National Bureau of Statistics,Pharmaceutical Manufacturing Industry to Grow 24.8 Percent YoY in Industrial Value Added in 2021(non-pharmaceutical market sales growth), the growth rate is far faster than other industries, ranking first in the industry. High growth is mainly due:
new crown vaccineenterprises actively layout production capacity construction, for national vaccination and vaccine exports, driving the development of the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry.
pharmaceutical companies actively expand production of APIs-China API production accounts for 40% of global API capacity, China's API production increased by 24.4 year-on-year in the second and third quarter of 2021 (the first quarter of 2021 has no reference value due to the impact of the epidemic).
monoclonal antibodyproduction capacity, including self-production and CDMO/CMO foundry production.
Even if the impact of the new crown epidemic is excluded, China's pharmaceutical manufacturing industry will continue to maintain high growth, driven by factors such as the aging population, China's 14th Five-Year Plan, and the increased accessibility of drugs driven by policies such as the expansion/collection of health insurance catalogues.
according to Oxford Economics,, China's pharmaceutical manufacturing industry will grow at an average annual rate of 11.9 from 2021 to 2025., it will exceed the 9.4 per cent CAGR in 2016-2020 and double the global market growth rate in the same period in 21-25.
by 2025, china's population over 50 will exceed 30 percent of the total population,in the contribution of the global pharmaceutical manufacturing industry value-added growth, China will continue to maintain the world's first in the future.
In the "14th Five-Year Plan", biotechnology is listed as one of the strategic emerging industries,strategic industries will account for more than 17% of GDP in 2025.(strategic emerging industries include: new generation information technology, biotechnology, new energy, new materials, high-end equipment, new energy vehicles, green environmental protection, aerospace, marine equipment, etc.).
However, due to the new crown epidemic and the international political situation, the rapid growth of the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry at the same time, supply chain security has become a major factor that has plagued pharmaceutical companies in the past two years. The ongoing neo-crown epidemic has kept global markets pessimistic about supply chain recovery expectations.
, nearly 70% of companies believe that the peak of the supply chain crisis will occur in the fourth quarter of 2021.
businesses believe that the supply chain crisis will eventually continue until the end of 2022.
noteworthy that the study was done before the emergence of the highly infectious Omicjon strain,the supply chain crisis will last longer than expected if the long-term recurrence of the new crown epidemic is taken into account..
, from Oxford Economics's 2021 model forecast, the overall impact of the supply chain crisis on developed countries in Europe and the United States is greater, above 2% (here 2% is not a GDP percentage but an absolute value), that is, assuming the normal GDP growth rate of the United States in 2022 is 4%, the supply chain crisis will cause the GDP growth rate of the United States to drop to 2% in 2022.
Europe and the United States as the global pharmaceutical manufacturing core raw materials, key production equipment consumables suppliers are located, the impact of the supply chain crisis on the upstream supply of the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry can be imagined.
According to the analysis of Zheshang Securities, the upstream core R & D/production raw materials and equipment market of China's pharmaceutical industry has reached100 billion yuansize, while mainstream European and American manufacturers account for 80-85% of the market.
have been rapidly transmitted to the Chinese pharmaceutical manufacturing market.., as Oxford Economics predicts, global supply chain challenges will have an absolute growth impact of-2% on the chemical and pharmaceutical industries.
How to deal with the risk of supply chain disruption and disruption will be an important issue for the entire pharmaceutical industry now and in the future..
epidemic and political factors does not only exist in the pharmaceutical field, the continued "lack of core" in the high-tech field, the new energy vehicle industry battery electrolyte raw material supply constraints, etc., all imply the high importance of supply chain security for the manufacturing industry.
because of this, during the recent two sessions in 2022, "enhancing the core competitiveness of the manufacturing industry" was first written into the government work report.
, the 2022 government work report was released, proposing to enhance the core competitiveness of the manufacturing industry and promote the smooth operation of the industrial economy,Strengthen the supply of raw materials, key components and other supplies to ensure the implementation of leading enterprises to maintain the chain stability project, to maintain the safety and stability of the industrial chain supply chain.
data sources:
・Global Sector Outlook - Q4 2021, Oxford Economics
-CEIC Economic Database
China Bureau of Statistics
・Securing trust in the global COVID-19 supply chain, Deloitte 2021
Zheshang Securities "Pharmaceutical Upstream, Substitution and Upgrade" Industry Analysis Report 2021
21st Century Business Herald-"Enhancing the Core Competitiveness of Manufacturing Industry" First Written in the Government Work Report
